Expect the Senate to vote in favor of Trump’s SCOTUS nominee by end of 2020
UConn Political Science Professor David Yalof: "Legacy in the court lasts much longer than presidents."
When President Donald J. Trump announces his pick to fill to the U.S. Supreme Court seat held by the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg, UConn Political Science Professor David Yalof says we should expect the Republican-controlled Senate to move to confirm the nominee by the end of the year.
“[Republicans] don’t know who the next president will be and they don’t know if they’re going to control the Senate in 2021, so they want to move now,” said Yalof, an expert in constitutional law, judicial politics and executive branch politics.
Yalof said there needs to be a clear distinction between constitutional laws and political norms. There has been a norm established for nearly the last half century that legislators don’t vote or confirm a U.S. Supreme Court nominee during an election year.
“That is the position the Republicans took in 2016 when they would not allow [President Barack] Obama’s nomination,” Yalof said. “They are obviously taking a very different position now. You can say they are violating the norms, but you cannot say they are violating the law of the Constitution.”
Trump has indicated he will announce his nomination Saturday. As soon as the president makes his choice known, the Senate Judiciary Committee will take up the process of researching, performing background checks, meeting with the candidate and calling people in to testify, if needed, according to Yalof.
The Senate Judiciary Committee will vote on the candidate, and the vote will move into the full Senate of 100 members for a vote. Yalof said it typically takes 60 to 80 days for a nominee to be confirmed.
“While getting a vote prior to Election Day would be unprecedented, it’s not impossible,” Yalof explained. “[Senators] could take the vote after Election Day during the lame-duck session, while Trump is still in power.”
Republicans in the Senate know that filling this seat will move laws decided by the Supreme Court in a conservative direction.
Supreme Court justices serve on the court for an average of 25 years, according to Yalof. After this confirmation, 6 out of the 9 appointees to the Court will have come from Republican presidents.
“The Supreme Court is something [Trump] and Republicans in the Senate care a great deal about,” Yalof said. “Legacy in the court lasts much longer than presidents.”
Yalof said the hurry to nominate a justice may also come from President Trump’s aim to fire up the conservatives in his base, in the presidential election against former Vice President Joe Biden, the democratic candidate.
“If Joe Biden wins the presidency, it would not change anything because he would not take the oath of office until Jan. 20, 2021,” Yalof explained. “And long before that the next justice to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg will probably have been voted on and confirmed.”