Black and Latino voters hold critical role in deciding the 2020 Election
Voters from these groups have more power than ever to “tip the scale” in favor of a candidate who rallies their support.
Thirty million Black Americans are eligible to vote in the 2020 presidential election, with more than one-third living in nine of the country’s most competitive states, according to the Pew Research Center.
Although the black voting demographic may be a minority in a statistical sense, UConn Political Science Professor Evelyn Simien said black voters can “tip the scale” in favor of a candidate capable of rallying their support.
A woman smiles as she submits her ballot on Election day in 1964 at Cardoza High School in Washington, D.C. (Photo by Marion S. Trikosko/Library of Congress)
Political context is an important factor in demographic motivation, explained Simien, an expert in African American politics, public opinion and political behavior. About 63% of Black registered voters are extremely motivated to vote in 2020.
Joe Biden’s rise as the Democratic Party’s 2020 presidential candidate can be partly attributed to his success with Black voters. They powered Biden’s victories in the primaries, especially in South Carolina and on Super Tuesday.
UConn History professor Jeffrey Ogbar, who is an expert in black nationalism and social justice movements, argued that the trend of black voters backing the Democratic nominee will hold true for the 2020 election. However, Ogbar added, the level of voter turnout will play a large role in the impact of this support from the Black community.
One timely concern for voter turnout among Black and brown voters is disinformation campaigns, as reported by VICE. Activists in Black and Latino communities say digital media is providing an unprecedented surge of bad information aimed to dissuade voters from voting.
Activist Ashley Bryant of Win Black/Pa’lante explained to VICE: “We're seeing Black and brown voters being heavily targeted with [disinformation] that says vote-by-mail is fraudulent, or voters being told that they would be added to a national watch list because they're registering to vote — really using some of these old school tactics, but in new school ways with the weaponization of digital media.”
UConn Political Science Associate Professor Shayla C. Nunnally said more moderate political ideologies may affect the support and mobilization of black voters. More liberal policies like social welfare and universal healthcare are likely to harness the support of black demographic.
“We see candidate’s political ideology and where they fall within the left becomes important. However, it is still important to knowledge the two-party system has manifested racialized voting over time,” Nunnally said.
The term link fate is used political scientists to describe the affinity African Americans across gender, class, region, and generation have for the Democratic Party. Ogbar said it relates to the communities that someone comes from, and “that community will benefit more by having access to college, access to healthcare, access to housing, and that those issues are so important that she’s willing to actually pay more taxes for a greater good.”
“I think the chief motivator, if you look at the voting patterns, [black voters] aren’t primarily driven by the race of the person running,” Ogbar added. “They are driven by the policy and where those two overlaps is a good thing.”
The Latino Vote
Currently, 32 million Hispanics are projected to be eligible to vote in this upcoming election, which is the first time this has exceeded the number of eligible Black voters in a presidential election.
Among Hispanic registered voters, they are expressing growing confidence in Joe Biden’s ability to handle key issues like the coronavirus outbreak, according to an October 2020 Pew Research Survey. Specifically, women and college graduates within the Hispanic demographic reported support of presidential nominee Biden. These views of the 2020 presidential candidates come after months of widespread job losses and illness due to COVID-19.
Despite this, Biden is currently underperforming among Latino voters. Only 59% of Latino voters nationwide say they would vote for Biden over President Donald Trump, which is lower than the 66% of Latino voters that Hillary Clinton won in 2016.
Some Latino groups lean more Republican: 58 percent of Cuban American registered voters say they lean toward the Republican Party, while 38 percent lean Democratic, according to a July 2020 Pew Research Center survey.
Less than half of Hispanic voters nationwide are enthusiastic about voting on Election Day, according to The Hill. WNPR journalist Brenda Leon, who covers Latino communities here in Connecticut, said many factors in 2020 are causing people to not be as engaged in the election.
“The level of engagement locally for the Latino community to participate in the election has not been as visible as we’d want it to be. Part of that has been [a gap in] registering voters, learning about the election process, learning about primaries, learning about all these different types of voting processes,” Leon said.
“I don’t think it’s disillusionment. What I’ve been hearing is that there are so many other things like having food access or being able to have a stable home, this has been something that might be a priority and perhaps voting becomes a second priority,” she explained.
College-age voters, considered Generation Z, make up one-in-ten eligible voters this fall and are the most ethnically diverse generation in America. While a majority are non-Hispanic white, a notable 22 percent are Hispanic, according to Census Bureau data. Some 14% of Gen Z eligible voters are Black, 5% are Asian, and 5% are another race or multiracial.